Incorporating mesopelagic fish into the evaluation of marine protected areas under climate change scenarios

Abstract Mesopelagic fish (meso-fish) are central species within the Southern Ocean (SO). However, their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change rarely integrated into marine protected area (MPAs) assessments. This is a pity given importance as crucial prey predators in food webs, coupled with impacts of change. Here, we estimate habitat distribution nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach (MAXENT, random forest, boosted regression tree). Four simulations were used project under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) for short-term (2006–2055) long-term (2050–2099) periods. In addition, assess ecological representativeness established proposed MPAs scenarios indicator species. Our models show that all shift poleward future. Lanternfishes (family Myctophidae) predicted migrate more than other families (Paralepididae, Nototheniidae, Bathylagidae, Gonostomatidae). comparison, lanternfishes projected increase eastern SO but lose western SO; opposite was families. Important areas (IAs) mainly distributed near Antarctic Peninsula East Antarctica. Proposed cover 23% IAs at present 38% future (RCP8.5, future). Many still need be included MPA proposals, such Prydz Bay seas around Peninsula. results provide framework designing new incorporating adaptation strategies management.